I was going to post the same thing. I cannot tell you the number of times I’ve misdated a document because I used a previous document as a template and forgot to check the date.
I get what you mean but we’d need a couple dozen templates and updating them would probably not be worth the time. I’ve gotten in the habit of highlighting everything that needs updating or verification on the first pass.
seriously i took a few hours for a week at the beginning of my career to write out basic forms that i could use over and over, that would autofill. shit that would take an hour or two a client if i did it by hand. is this just attorney stuff to pad out billable hours or does no one else think that far ahead?
Occam’s Razor says that explanation with fewest assumptions is likely the right one. With all the other coincidences that led to his death, his apparent suicide requires a lot of more assumptions.
Occam’s Razor says that explanation with fewest assumptions is likely the right one.
Yeah, the Occam’s razor answer definitely isn’t that someone reused an existing document from the day before and forgot to change the date. That’s just unbelievable. It’s more likely that this was a premeditated murder and someone filed the paperwork a day early on accident.
someone reused an existing document and put wrong date
the camera observing his cell failed
the redundant camera observing his cell also failed
the remaining cameras that could capture something apparently turn off for 3 minutes every day (that’s apparently normal for security cameras)
they accidentally removed him from suicide watch
he managed to kill himself despite cells being designated to prevent that
he was missing a cell buddy just for that night
three fractures on his neck which are unusual to hanging
Each of them could be explained somehow through assumptions, but there are quite a lot of assumptions, don’t you think?
I would imagine that in 21 century, FBI would have system to enter such notices and it would populate it with current date, because why would you want to modify date if you aren’t doing anything shady?
The first bullet point is infinitely more trivial than the others, and knowing way too much about document management and content management, I’m aware that it’s common to make date errors in templated forms. That one doesn’t meet the reasonable-doubt test.
The other bullet points, though… a lot of things about that situation stink to high heaven.
Don’t get distracted by the small stuff. If you’re wrong about it, bad actors will claim that that’s proof that everything you’re saying is wrong too.
The questioning about this article is less about whether he did or did not kill himself but more so whether the date error is evidence he didn’t kill himself
Even if we were 100% sure he was murdered, why would some lowly typist know about it in advance and pre write a report. Like obviously the admin is incompetent and left so many glaring holes but why would they tell a non essential person?
At the end of the day it’s basically impossible that he actually killed himself of his own volition but to say that a date error is proof of that is incredibly flimsy
… Or, the message was not drawn up by some random lowly typist, and was drawn up by somebody in a much, much higher position.
Not sure if you’ve ever worked in any kind of large bureaucratic corporation of other kind of organization, but that happens all the time, when somebody wants to specifically handle something personally, and also have the plausible deniability of ‘random clerk made error.’
The nature of bureaucracies is to a large extent that those best at establishing as many avenues of plausible deniability as possible, those who can set themselves up with the ability to throw other people under the bus… they tend to ‘win’, persist longer and get promoted higher in said bureacracy.
Them writing the report especially in advance would take away their plausible deniability and just bring more attention to the scene
… assuming that it can be determined conclusively that that happened.
Which, it often cannot be, in a bureaucratic system that normally has some kind of subordinate to do those things of things, but where sometimes the superior person just directly does it instead.
So ok, you clearly have not worked in a large bureaucratic organization before, or … this would be very obvious to you.
The report had no urgency to be done so having it done in advance especially considering in a murder details could have changed seems pointless
This is just nonsensical.
The entire … thing here is a statement that was released urgently.
The entire contention is that it may have been so urgent that it was actually pre-planned and drafted prior to the actual event.
You are just entirely dismissing this possibility, to prove that this possibility did not happen.
I am not saying 100% either way that it was a clerical error or a premeditated construction.
I don’t know for certain either way.
But you are using very bad logic to argue that it was a clerical error.
Imagine you rob a jewelry store, and you want to make sure you have an iron clad alibi so you have a person pretend to be you and get seen on video camera at a bank.
Would you request that video in advance from the bank so as soon as a cop comes to see you, you can present it? No! Because pre obtaining an alibi for a crime you are pretending you didn’t commit makes you look guilty
Writing the report in advance makes you look guilty even if it wasn’t murder
Bypassing standard operating procedures and having a senior person (someone high enough that they are “worthy” of the knowledge that the suicide was staged) writing a report is also suspicious
Having a report prefilled out so it can be urgently released instead of the normal wait time is also suspicious
So we go back to Occam’s razor is the assumption that they ignored numerous basic attempts to cover their tracks that any idiot who watched an episode of NCIS would know to do, or did a person put in the wrong date?
Again I am not denying in the slightest that Epstein didn’t kill himself but the argument that this is proof of it is ludicrous.
it’s also plausible that, if it were a murder and not a suicide, everything was prepared the day before but they couldn’t go on time and had to wait a day.
there are a lot of possibilities. certainly a critical error is one of them. but if we’re going to talk about plausible explanations that isn’t the only one
Why though. Why would you prepare the document the day before? Why do you need to have it “ready to go”? There’s literally no logical reason to premake such a document. It doesn’t benefit the murder plan at all.
Have you ever done something for one reason, but told people you did it for another reason?
Have you ever been in a scenario where you were considering whether or not you would do something like that, but realized you would need a convincing false narrative for other people first, before you considered actually doing the thing?
It very much benefits a group of people or an organization that is doing something like this, to get all their stories straight, before they proceed.
If your cover story works properly…
… no one will ever know, or at least not untill so much time has passed as to make being caught not really matter any more.
… This is just the logic of how all kinds of people and organizations who need to maintain one kind of outward public image or reputation, while actually doing things that do not match their outward appearance, how they act.
But again what possible advantage does it serve to pretype the report? And either you had to inform the clerk of your plan so they can write the report (why have more witnesses) or you had to bypass the clerk (why deviate from “business as usual)
If we assume that the goal was to kill Epstein then all those events can be explained together with that one assumption.
If those were just coincidences, it means that those mere chances happening independently and for each of them we need to make a separate assumption (the cameras just happen to broke on that day, the backup ones maybe broke last week, but they didn’t fix it, one of the guards who fell asleep celebrated his birthday until late and didn’t sleep, the other one couldn’t fall asleep last night because neighbor’s dog was barking all night etc a lot of assumptions)
Lots of words have unified origins. They diverge to allow 2 different concepts to be named. Calling someone a cleric still means something different to calling them a clerk.
However, a clerical error could be ambiguous. Likely as the term was less common, and so didn’t have enough usage to warrant divergence.
This is 1000x more likely to be a clerical error or time zone thing rather than a conspiracy.
really? what time zones did JEE fly across in his prison cell?
The they also changed the cause of death after they found Epstein in his cell
I was going to post the same thing. I cannot tell you the number of times I’ve misdated a document because I used a previous document as a template and forgot to check the date.
am i the only person who had the foresight to make blank templates? that autofilled the dates?
I would say “you’d be surprised” but you evidently are also a corpo or ex corpo, so… no, you wouldn’t be.
Yeah, most of your (ex)coworkers are in fact devious, petty, self-centered idiots.
Yep.
ex and ancillary, but yeah.
Well uh, as per my last email:
… sorry, lol.
Keep flaunting your Office skills like that and you might just land yourself a job in middle management if you’re not careful
upper management, actually. it was not great.
I get what you mean but we’d need a couple dozen templates and updating them would probably not be worth the time. I’ve gotten in the habit of highlighting everything that needs updating or verification on the first pass.
seriously i took a few hours for a week at the beginning of my career to write out basic forms that i could use over and over, that would autofill. shit that would take an hour or two a client if i did it by hand. is this just attorney stuff to pad out billable hours or does no one else think that far ahead?
Scopes for all the projects are usually too different. I put together a checklist system instead.
His body was supposedly discovered on August 10 at 6:30am. Which time zone are you suggesting?
Edit: also it says Friday, August 9, 2019 which is much harder to make a mistake.
I don’t see the document in the article, here it is: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet 8/EFTA00013180.pdf
This looks like it was a draft. Here’s the final version https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/statement-manhattan-us-attorney-death-defendant-jeffrey-epstein it is slightly modified and adds “of apparent suicide”
Occam’s Razor says that explanation with fewest assumptions is likely the right one. With all the other coincidences that led to his death, his apparent suicide requires a lot of more assumptions.
Yeah, the Occam’s razor answer definitely isn’t that someone reused an existing document from the day before and forgot to change the date. That’s just unbelievable. It’s more likely that this was a premeditated murder and someone filed the paperwork a day early on accident.
Why not both?
Yeah:
Each of them could be explained somehow through assumptions, but there are quite a lot of assumptions, don’t you think?
I would imagine that in 21 century, FBI would have system to enter such notices and it would populate it with current date, because why would you want to modify date if you aren’t doing anything shady?
The first bullet point is infinitely more trivial than the others, and knowing way too much about document management and content management, I’m aware that it’s common to make date errors in templated forms. That one doesn’t meet the reasonable-doubt test.
The other bullet points, though… a lot of things about that situation stink to high heaven.
Don’t get distracted by the small stuff. If you’re wrong about it, bad actors will claim that that’s proof that everything you’re saying is wrong too.
You have a valid point.
The questioning about this article is less about whether he did or did not kill himself but more so whether the date error is evidence he didn’t kill himself
Even if we were 100% sure he was murdered, why would some lowly typist know about it in advance and pre write a report. Like obviously the admin is incompetent and left so many glaring holes but why would they tell a non essential person?
At the end of the day it’s basically impossible that he actually killed himself of his own volition but to say that a date error is proof of that is incredibly flimsy
… Or, the message was not drawn up by some random lowly typist, and was drawn up by somebody in a much, much higher position.
Not sure if you’ve ever worked in any kind of large bureaucratic corporation of other kind of organization, but that happens all the time, when somebody wants to specifically handle something personally, and also have the plausible deniability of ‘random clerk made error.’
The nature of bureaucracies is to a large extent that those best at establishing as many avenues of plausible deniability as possible, those who can set themselves up with the ability to throw other people under the bus… they tend to ‘win’, persist longer and get promoted higher in said bureacracy.
Them writing the report especially in advance would take away their plausible deniability and just bring more attention to the scene
The report had no urgency to be done so having it done in advance especially considering in a murder details could have changed seems pointless
… assuming that it can be determined conclusively that that happened.
Which, it often cannot be, in a bureaucratic system that normally has some kind of subordinate to do those things of things, but where sometimes the superior person just directly does it instead.
So ok, you clearly have not worked in a large bureaucratic organization before, or … this would be very obvious to you.
This is just nonsensical.
The entire … thing here is a statement that was released urgently.
The entire contention is that it may have been so urgent that it was actually pre-planned and drafted prior to the actual event.
You are just entirely dismissing this possibility, to prove that this possibility did not happen.
I am not saying 100% either way that it was a clerical error or a premeditated construction.
I don’t know for certain either way.
But you are using very bad logic to argue that it was a clerical error.
Imagine you rob a jewelry store, and you want to make sure you have an iron clad alibi so you have a person pretend to be you and get seen on video camera at a bank.
Would you request that video in advance from the bank so as soon as a cop comes to see you, you can present it? No! Because pre obtaining an alibi for a crime you are pretending you didn’t commit makes you look guilty
Writing the report in advance makes you look guilty even if it wasn’t murder
Bypassing standard operating procedures and having a senior person (someone high enough that they are “worthy” of the knowledge that the suicide was staged) writing a report is also suspicious
Having a report prefilled out so it can be urgently released instead of the normal wait time is also suspicious
So we go back to Occam’s razor is the assumption that they ignored numerous basic attempts to cover their tracks that any idiot who watched an episode of NCIS would know to do, or did a person put in the wrong date?
Again I am not denying in the slightest that Epstein didn’t kill himself but the argument that this is proof of it is ludicrous.
it’s also plausible that, if it were a murder and not a suicide, everything was prepared the day before but they couldn’t go on time and had to wait a day.
there are a lot of possibilities. certainly a critical error is one of them. but if we’re going to talk about plausible explanations that isn’t the only one
Why though. Why would you prepare the document the day before? Why do you need to have it “ready to go”? There’s literally no logical reason to premake such a document. It doesn’t benefit the murder plan at all.
Did you just ask “why premeditate a murder?”
… evidently the concept of planning a nefarious act is… a novel concept, for some.
It absolutely 100% does make sense to do that.
It is called crafting a cover story.
Have you ever done something for one reason, but told people you did it for another reason?
Have you ever been in a scenario where you were considering whether or not you would do something like that, but realized you would need a convincing false narrative for other people first, before you considered actually doing the thing?
It very much benefits a group of people or an organization that is doing something like this, to get all their stories straight, before they proceed.
If your cover story works properly…
… no one will ever know, or at least not untill so much time has passed as to make being caught not really matter any more.
… This is just the logic of how all kinds of people and organizations who need to maintain one kind of outward public image or reputation, while actually doing things that do not match their outward appearance, how they act.
I think he made a point that the date might be auto populated and one who generated it didn’t notice or forgot about it.
But again what possible advantage does it serve to pretype the report? And either you had to inform the clerk of your plan so they can write the report (why have more witnesses) or you had to bypass the clerk (why deviate from “business as usual)
I think you mean coincidences not assumptions
Occam’s Razor talks about assumptions.
If we assume that the goal was to kill Epstein then all those events can be explained together with that one assumption.
If those were just coincidences, it means that those mere chances happening independently and for each of them we need to make a separate assumption (the cameras just happen to broke on that day, the backup ones maybe broke last week, but they didn’t fix it, one of the guards who fell asleep celebrated his birthday until late and didn’t sleep, the other one couldn’t fall asleep last night because neighbor’s dog was barking all night etc a lot of assumptions)
You forgot the sleepwalking prison guards captured on camera.
… Why would there be a template or version of an existing document specifically dated to … the previous day?
As opposed to … just a blank date field?
You know, a template?
Did something else happen on the 9th, that required a document of this format to be drafted up?
Also… how often is such a template used, for a pretty uncommon, special statement to the general public, actually used?
Probably not very often.
Your argument is not very good.
You’re layering in a bunch of assumptions, adding more complex conditions that would have to be met, you know, the opposite of doing Occam’s Razor.
Clerical error then
Yeah, the cleric filled it too early. Didn’t want to work on Saturday.
Clerk, BTW.
A cleric is a member of the clergy (and typically the healer in an adventuring party)
Hmm yes but surely clerk is just a descendant of cleric right? It’s almost a contraction
It is actually!
Basically only the clergy could read and write, so they handled accounting and acted as scribes to nobles and the monarchy.
It split off like 600 years ago or so
Edit: a few extra words added in, I’m going to blame the keyboard/autocorrect just because I can.
Lots of words have unified origins. They diverge to allow 2 different concepts to be named. Calling someone a cleric still means something different to calling them a clerk.
However, a clerical error could be ambiguous. Likely as the term was less common, and so didn’t have enough usage to warrant divergence.
Yes, that would be more of an ecumenical error.
Careful now.
LAY ON HANDS!
Venus Standard Time