Here we go!
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…welcome to the multipolar rules-free world you asked for, russia. who would do such a thing…
That’s not a Russian tanker, its a Venezuelan tanker that re-flagged as Russia in the desperate hope that it could convince a Russian naval escort to protect it from pursuit by the American military.
Don’t worry. The Russians never interceded. The US leveraged military support from the UK to halt the frigate and board it. We still live in a unipolar world dominated by Amerikkkan imperial aggression.
You had me until the last sentence. Do you even hear yourself?
I’m absolutely not a fan of American Imperialism - either the historical softer kind, or the new bullheaded “fuck you I do what I want” kind - but being so comically dogmatic makes you sound just as bad as the die-hard MAGA crowd.
This is a specimen of the fabled “blue maga” disease. Watch out! It’s contagious if you’re particularly dull.
That’s… not at all what’s happening here, nor is it what I’m saying, nor am I making excuse for the DNC’s idiocy.
Did you know there’s no universal opinion on when WW2 started. Just saying, it’s not going to be a particular day, but a cascade of poor decisions made until everyone was pissed of. This shit needs to stop. The poor decisions are long faster and more serious. We do not have the capacity to go to war. Because we have pissed off everyone else. We’ve lost already.
Either it started with the first invasion of the involved (Japan invades China in 1938) or it officially started when Hitler declares war on the US after Pearl Harbor in the end of 1941 and the Pacific and Europe fronts officially coalesce into one war. But you’re right…until it all solidifies into two committed opposing sides, it is very gradual and unclear what is going to happen.
Those two dates are not universal in every country/region. Western dates usually cast us in the best light, while Russia and China argue different times themselves. (it’s like judging when black is officially gray, and when gray becomes officially white. People’s opinions very.)
That’s why I gave a range from
19381937 to 1941. If you think there are any other things happening before19381937 or that there is any date after 1941 that could be considered the beginning of WW2 anywhere, let me know.Those date ranges fit my understanding, nothing earlier or later comes to mind.
Now would be a great time for the compromat to be released to the world.
This ship is an interesting case - I hope to read more about it in the coming days.
- the ship was named Bella 1 and flew the flag of Guyana
- if MarineTraffic is correct, it headed from Iran to Venezuela, empty
- but you can take oil onboard a ship in Iran, why go to Venezuela?
- the US coast guard wanted to board the ship, the tanker refused and changed course towards Europe
- the US coast guard left a vessel to trail it
- the tanker appeared in the Russian ship registry, named itself Marinera, and lacking a Russian flag, painted one on the hull
- the US started fying special forces to the UK in an apparent interception bid
- today morning, it was rumoured that Russia had sent (was sending?) a submarine and some surface vessel to escort the ship
- today midday (UTC), US special forces landed a mini-helicopter on the tanker
- they must have come from another ship, since one doesn’t operate minicopters far above ocean
- I conclude they were in hurry
- the tanker’s crew did not offer resistance
- the tanker has since changed course southwards
- evidence of a Russian escort has not been published at this time
- however, the ship’s operator obviously had connections in Russia, to get the ship registered and the story published in “Russia Today”
…and I’m puzzled. At some point I thought it might carry sensitive cargo. But a tiny force (4 men were visible, Little Bird can carry up to 6 men besides pilots) boarded without resistance, and a ship carrying sensitive cargo has far more guys defending it. As far as I can gather from public sources, the rumoured submarine never surfaced and never took steps to forbid the takeover.
Truly puzzling, and I appreciate how you’ve laid it out.
I wonder, what would a submarine do to prevent boarding by helicopter?
I wonder, what would a submarine do to prevent boarding by helicopter?
In case of the usual Kilo class, a submarine might threaten to fire an antiaircraft missile. They don’t have air surveillance radar, but can fire heat seekers.
*filled with Venezuelan oil, not Russian oil.
And a second tanker in the Caribbean
Edit: not even filled with oil, it tried to dock in Venezuela, couldn’t because of the embargo, and got chased across the Atlantic. It changed its registration to Russian last week and even painted on a Russian flag mid-pursuit to attract Russian protection.
Wouldn’t raising a Russian flag make it more legitimate to seize, not less?
Seems changing the flag mid-journey makes it a legit seizure, unless I’m reading this wrong:
With the help of the UK. Obviously the Brits didn’t learn the lessons of Iraq and helping US imperialism
What do you mean? The lesson they learned is that their rich people got richer and no one who matters paid any consequences.
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So the official line is that this whole deal is about stopping the pipeline for oil from Venezuela to Russia and Iran. Is that actually legitimate? I’d think Russia and Iran have enough domestic oil for their own use that they wouldn’t have to bother with Venezuela’s heavy sour. Are they just taking the opportunity to seize any ship that wanders into the Western hemisphere that could be used to illicitly transport oil exports from these countries maybe? If so, that could actually hurt Putin’s interests - I gotta figure TACO would come into play on a move like that.
In my opinion seeing this through the lens of nations is nearly meaningless.
What is happening is the end of oil has begun and the Ukrainian war has made it very difficult to keep oil prices high. China is moving towards alternative energy and massively investing into EVs, the writing is on the wall. If you don’t secure a buyer for your oil even if you have lots of oil it is going to become harder and harder to sell it.
The way I see it, Trump is at the end of the day attacking Venezuela and seizing tankers in order to try to introduce enough instability into the world oil markets that prices don’t crash further for the oil companies actually running all of this. I don’t really even see this as a true hostile action against Russia, it feels like a purely cynical price manipulation move that Russia just happened to be the convenient target of.
All of the other context people are providing are the details built upon this core reality.
