… Meanwhile, the bond markets are continuing to freak the fuck out, and the yield curve has now inverted and univerted three times before an actual ‘official’ recession has begun.
For those that don’t know, a yield curve inversion is when short term bonds offer a higher yield (interest rate) than long term bonds.
That… it not how that is supposed to work.
Generally speaking, a longer term bond should be riskier due to the amount of things that can possibly go wrong in that longer amount of time, as compared to a shorter term bond that pays itself back in less time, with less time for unforseen nonsense to happen.
Every single US official recession in the last … 50, 100 years? has occured after first, the yield curve inverts, then it uninverts, and then an ‘official’ recession follows quite rapidly.
…Except fucking now.
Now we are in a situation where the yield curve has inverted then uninverted three fucking times without an ‘official’ recession actually starting.
This is unprecedented.
As of right now, the 6 month T Bill and the 5 year T Bond have roughly the same yield, and everything in between has a lower yield, the lowest point being the 2 yr.
… Its supposed to be basically a line going upward on the y axis of yields, as you move rightward on the x axis from shorter to longer term debt/bonds.
The bond market right now is more or less saying we are gonna be in for 2 years minimum of economic decline.
The casino model of doing business except in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right? Nah, let’s declare bankrupt and stiff all our creditors, and our debt will be taken care of. Smart. Business. Move
Like Great Depression 2.0 bad, but this time shanty towns are all classed as illegal homeless encampments and Trump has publicly stated multiple times his plan for the homeless is literally concentration camps in the middle of nowhere or outskirts of cities, that kind of bad.
… Meanwhile, the bond markets are continuing to freak the fuck out, and the yield curve has now inverted and univerted three times before an actual ‘official’ recession has begun.
For those that don’t know, a yield curve inversion is when short term bonds offer a higher yield (interest rate) than long term bonds.
That… it not how that is supposed to work.
Generally speaking, a longer term bond should be riskier due to the amount of things that can possibly go wrong in that longer amount of time, as compared to a shorter term bond that pays itself back in less time, with less time for unforseen nonsense to happen.
Every single US official recession in the last … 50, 100 years? has occured after first, the yield curve inverts, then it uninverts, and then an ‘official’ recession follows quite rapidly.
…Except fucking now.
Now we are in a situation where the yield curve has inverted then uninverted three fucking times without an ‘official’ recession actually starting.
This is unprecedented.
As of right now, the 6 month T Bill and the 5 year T Bond have roughly the same yield, and everything in between has a lower yield, the lowest point being the 2 yr.
… Its supposed to be basically a line going upward on the y axis of yields, as you move rightward on the x axis from shorter to longer term debt/bonds.
The bond market right now is more or less saying we are gonna be in for 2 years minimum of economic decline.
Trump’s gonna default on the bonds and the debt to try to reset everything. Ya’ll are fucked.
The casino model of doing business except in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right? Nah, let’s declare bankrupt and stiff all our creditors, and our debt will be taken care of. Smart. Business. Move
Ask Robert Mugabe
… yeah.
Shits gonna get real bad.
Like Great Depression 2.0 bad, but this time shanty towns are all classed as illegal homeless encampments and Trump has publicly stated multiple times his plan for the homeless is literally concentration camps in the middle of nowhere or outskirts of cities, that kind of bad.