It’s like having a lightning-fast junior developer at your disposal. If you’re vague, he’ll go on shitty side-quests. If you overspecify he’ll get overwhelmed. You need to break down tasks into manageable chunks. You’ll need to ask follow-up questions about every corner case.
A real junior developer will have improved a lot in a year. Your AI agent won’t have improved.
This is the real thing. You can absolutely get good code out of AI, but it requires a lot of hand holding. It helps me speed some tasks, especially boring ones, but I don’t see it ever replacing me. It makes far too many errors, and requires me to point them out, and to point in the direction of the solution.
They are great at churning out massive amounts of code. They’re also great at completely missing the point. And the massive amount of code needs to be checked and reviewed. Personally I’d rather write the code and have the AI review it. That’s a much more pleasant way to work, and that way it actually enhances quality.
They are improving, and probably faster then junior devs. The models we had had 2 years ago would struggle with a simple black jack app. I don’t think the ceiling has been hit.
The cost of the improvement doesn’t change the fact that it’s happening. I guess we could all play pretend instead if it makes you feel better about it. Don’t worry bro, the models are getting dumber!
And I ask you - if those same trillions of dollars were instead spent on materially improving the lives of average people, how much more progress would we make as a society? This is an absolutely absurd sum of money were talking about here.
It’s beside the point. I’m simply saying that AI will improve in the next year. The cost to do so or all the others things that money could be spent on doesn’t matter when it’s clearly going to be spent on AI. I’m not in charge of monetary policies anywhere, I have no say in the matter. I’m just pushing back on the fantasies. I’m hoping the open source scene survives so we don’t end up in some ugly dystopia where all AI is controlled by a handful of companies.
I have the impression that anti-AI people don’t understand that they are giving up agency for the sake of temporary feels. If they truly cared about ethical usage of AI, they would be wanting to have mastery that is at least equal to that of corporations and the 1%.
Making AI into a public good is key to a better future.
They might. The amount of money they’re pumping into this is absolutely staggering. I don’t see how they’re going to make all of that money back, unless they manage to replace nearly all employees.
Either way it’s going to be a disaster: mass unemployment or the largest companies in the world collapsing.
I dunno, the death of mega corporations would do the world a great deal of good. Healthier capitalism requires competition, and a handful of corporations of any given sector isn’t going to seriously compete nor pay good wages.
It’s certainly the option I’m rooting for, but it would still be a massive drama and disrupt a lot of lives. Which is why they’ll probably get bailed out with taxpayer money.
My jr developer will eventually be familiar with the entire codebase and can make decisions with that in mind without me reminding them about details at every turn.
LLMs would need massive context windows and/or custom training to compete with that. I’m sure we’ll get there eventually, but for now it seems far off. I think this bubble will have to burst and let hardware catch up with our ambitions. It’ll take a couple of decades.
It’s like having a lightning-fast junior developer at your disposal. If you’re vague, he’ll go on shitty side-quests. If you overspecify he’ll get overwhelmed. You need to break down tasks into manageable chunks. You’ll need to ask follow-up questions about every corner case.
A real junior developer will have improved a lot in a year. Your AI agent won’t have improved.
This is the real thing. You can absolutely get good code out of AI, but it requires a lot of hand holding. It helps me speed some tasks, especially boring ones, but I don’t see it ever replacing me. It makes far too many errors, and requires me to point them out, and to point in the direction of the solution.
They are great at churning out massive amounts of code. They’re also great at completely missing the point. And the massive amount of code needs to be checked and reviewed. Personally I’d rather write the code and have the AI review it. That’s a much more pleasant way to work, and that way it actually enhances quality.
They are improving, and probably faster then junior devs. The models we had had 2 years ago would struggle with a simple black jack app. I don’t think the ceiling has been hit.
Just a few trillion more dollars, bro. We’re almost there. Bro, if you give up a few showers, the AI datacenter will be able to work perfectly.
Bro.
The cost of the improvement doesn’t change the fact that it’s happening. I guess we could all play pretend instead if it makes you feel better about it. Don’t worry bro, the models are getting dumber!
And I ask you - if those same trillions of dollars were instead spent on materially improving the lives of average people, how much more progress would we make as a society? This is an absolutely absurd sum of money were talking about here.
It’s beside the point. I’m simply saying that AI will improve in the next year. The cost to do so or all the others things that money could be spent on doesn’t matter when it’s clearly going to be spent on AI. I’m not in charge of monetary policies anywhere, I have no say in the matter. I’m just pushing back on the fantasies. I’m hoping the open source scene survives so we don’t end up in some ugly dystopia where all AI is controlled by a handful of companies.
I have the impression that anti-AI people don’t understand that they are giving up agency for the sake of temporary feels. If they truly cared about ethical usage of AI, they would be wanting to have mastery that is at least equal to that of corporations and the 1%.
Making AI into a public good is key to a better future.
That would be pretty impressive when they already lack any intelligence at all.
They might. The amount of money they’re pumping into this is absolutely staggering. I don’t see how they’re going to make all of that money back, unless they manage to replace nearly all employees.
Either way it’s going to be a disaster: mass unemployment or the largest companies in the world collapsing.
I dunno, the death of mega corporations would do the world a great deal of good. Healthier capitalism requires competition, and a handful of corporations of any given sector isn’t going to seriously compete nor pay good wages.
It’s certainly the option I’m rooting for, but it would still be a massive drama and disrupt a lot of lives. Which is why they’ll probably get bailed out with taxpayer money.
My jr developer will eventually be familiar with the entire codebase and can make decisions with that in mind without me reminding them about details at every turn.
LLMs would need massive context windows and/or custom training to compete with that. I’m sure we’ll get there eventually, but for now it seems far off. I think this bubble will have to burst and let hardware catch up with our ambitions. It’ll take a couple of decades.