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Cake day: October 4th, 2023

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  • https://biblerepository.com/bible-verses-about-earthquakes-2/

    Yes, though based on the list there sounds like the most-dramatic ones there are in Revelation, which is a prophetic vision of the future, rather than about the past.

    Revelation 6:12-17

    I watched as he opened the sixth seal. There was a great earthquake. The sun turned black like sackcloth made of goat hair, the whole moon turned blood red, and the stars in the sky fell to earth, as figs drop from a fig tree when shaken by a strong wind.  The heavens receded like a scroll being rolled up, and every mountain and island was removed from its place.

    Then the kings of the earth, the princes, the generals, the rich, the mighty, and everyone else, both slave and free, hid in caves and among the rocks of the mountains.  They called to the mountains and the rocks, “Fall on us and hide us from the face of him who sits on the throne and from the wrath of the Lamb!  For the great day of their wrath has come, and who can withstand it?”





  • While that is true in theory, it’s also true that it’s a little more complicated than that.

    My understanding is that in the past, the US tried placing tariffs on steel originating from China — steel being a strategic good, something where there’s a positive externality to having a secure supply — and it wound up effectively being routed through other countries.

    A second issue is that it’s not just a matter of the steel moving through countries directly, but the fact that products can be manufactured in other countries using steel from China, and there isn’t any system for tracking that. Like, say I buy a desktop computer case made of sheet metal from, oh, Taiwan. Where did the Taiwanese manufacturer get the steel from?

    searches

    Here’s something from Brookings (Brookings not being particularly enthusiastic about either Trump or protectionist trade policy):

    https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-china-circumventing-us-tariffs-via-mexico-and-canada/

    Since 2018, the U.S. has imposed and ratcheted up tariffs on a broad range of Chinese imports. U.S. tariffs on China have created incentives for Chinese products to circumvent these tariffs by entering the U.S. via Canada and Mexico, paying either the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) tariff rate of zero or the U.S. WTO Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rate, which has been well below U.S. tariffs on China. Chinese circumvention of U.S. tariffs undermines the U.S. policy of reducing economic integration with China and addressing the impact of China’s imports on U.S. manufacturing. This paper analyzes the extent of Chinese circumvention of U.S. tariffs up until the end of 2024. Since President Donald Trump came into office in 2025, he has raised tariffs further on imports from China and (but to a lesser extent so far) on imports from Canada, Mexico, and other countries as well. At the time of writing, U.S. tariffs were in flux, but the end result will most likely be U.S. tariffs on imports from China that continue to be higher than U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, thereby maintaining the incentive for circumvention.

    This paper analyzes three ways that Chinese products can circumvent U.S. tariffs:

    1. Transshipment, which occurs when an import from China passes through Mexico or Canada on its way to the U.S.
    2. Incorporation of Chinese products into North American supply chains. This includes manufacturing in Mexico and Canada to produce products that are then exported to the U.S.
    3. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) into Mexico and Canada to produce goods that are then exported to the U.S.


  • If anyone, law enforcement or otherwise, illegally, forcibly enters your home, that person should expect that they may be shot

    In most cases, that’s a necessary but not sufficient condition to legally shoot someone. Castle doctrine — which not all states subscribe to — just means that a homeowner has no duty to retreat from their home even in a situation where they believe that they could do so safely, can instead use deadly force against an intruder, but there are also other conditions. Usually you need to also reasonably believe that you are at threat of death or serious bodily injury. It’s not, alone, a blank check to use deadly force against someone illegally entering your home.

    In Texas, which has unusually permissive laws, you’re allowed to use deadly force against someone engaging in burglary if you reasonably believe that you cannot otherwise protect your property without risk of death or severe injury, which is probably the closest that I’m aware of:

    https://codes.findlaw.com/tx/penal-code/penal-sect-9-42/

    Texas Penal Code - PENAL § 9.42. Deadly Force to Protect Property

    A person is justified in using deadly force against another to protect land or tangible, movable property:

    (1) if he would be justified in using force against the other under Section 9.41; and

    (2) when and to the degree he reasonably believes the deadly force is immediately necessary:

    (A) to prevent the other’s imminent commission of arson, burglary, robbery, aggravated robbery, theft during the nighttime, or criminal mischief during the nighttime; or

    (B) to prevent the other who is fleeing immediately after committing burglary, robbery, aggravated robbery, or theft during the nighttime from escaping with the property; and

    (3) he reasonably believes that:

    (A) the land or property cannot be protected or recovered by any other means; or

    (B) the use of force other than deadly force to protect or recover the land or property would expose the actor or another to a substantial risk of death or serious bodily injury.




  • I was about to say that I knew that COVID-19 caused video game sales to surge, and then crash, and there was over-hiring that had happened in response to those sales, but a third seems like an insanely high number.

    Looking at WP, it sounds like the surge was actually that high…but for mobile OS games and console games, not PC, where the surge was much more muted. I also hadn’t realized that mobile OS video game spending had become that much larger than PC spending.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–2025_video_game_industry_layoffs

    The COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in interest in gaming globally, and was a period of dramatic expansion in the industry, with many mergers and acquisitions conducted. In many cases companies over-expanded, as this rapid COVID-era growth was unsustainable. The industry began to slow in 2022, and amid spiralling costs and a shift in consumer habits, layoffs began.

    The first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic brought about a sharp increase in revenue for the gaming sector worldwide as people looked for indoor entertainment.[56] According to IDC, in 2020, revenue from mobile games climbed by 32.8% to $99.9 billion, while expenditure on digital PC and Mac games increased by 7.4% to $35.6 billion.[57] The amount spent on home console games increased significantly as well, reaching $42.9 billion, up 33.9%.[58][59]

    In the ensuing years, this growing pattern abruptly stopped.[60] Revenue growth from mobile gaming fell by 15% in 2021, and then fell even further in 2022 and 2023, to -3.3% and -3.1%, respectively. Sales of PC and Mac games saw a brief rise of 8.7% in 2021, a drop of 1.4% in 2022, and a rebound of 2.1% in 2023.[61] Similarly, after a surge in 2020, console game spending plateaued in 2021 with growth at 0.7%, followed by a decline of 3.4% in 2022, before returning to growth at 5.9% in 2023.[59][62]

    EDIT: Based on those numbers, the surge in mobile and console sales combined was basically equivalent in value to the entirety of PC video game sales. It’s like the equivalent of the entire PC video gaming industry materialized, existed for a few years, and then disappeared.




  • I mean, human environments are intrinsically made for humanoids to navigate. Like, okay, we put stairs places, things like that. So in theory, yeah, a humanoid form makes sense if you want to stick robots in a human environment.

    But in practice, I think that there are all kinds of problems to be solved with humans and robots interacting in the same space and getting robots to do human things. Even just basic safety stuff, much less being able to reasonably do general interactions in a human environment. Tesla spent a long time on FSD for its vehicles, and that’s a much-more-limited-scope problem.

    Like, humanoid robots have been a thing in sci-fi for a long time, but I’m not sold that they’re a great near-term solution.

    If you ever look at those Boston Dynamics demos, you’ll note that they do them in a (rather-scuffed-up) lab with safety glass and barriers and all that.

    I’m not saying that it’s not possible to make a viable humanoid robot at some point. But I don’t think that the kind of thing that Musk has claimed it’ll be useful for:

    “It’ll do anything you want,” Musk said. “It can be a teacher, babysit your kids; it can walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries; just be your friend, serve drinks. Whatever you can think of, it will do.”

    …a sort of Rosie The Robot from The Jetsons, is likely going to be at all reasonable for quite some time.