• 2 Posts
  • 22 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

help-circle



  • I don’t think we’re having the same conversation.

    This EO is about going back over the visa documents for people who entered legally and reviewing them based on a changed standard.

    The article is badly written with a sensationalized headline. The EO is written in standard legalese, and only related tangentially to the article. H1Bs likely don’t need to worry too much, but postdocs on that visa who went to a protest may need to reconsider their political activity. The fact that CAIR is quoted should give you a hint as to how this EO is expected to be applied - towards international students on F1 visas - specifically those who have taken part of campus demonstrations involving symbols from foreign terrorist organizations (Hamas flag, Hezbollah flags, etc).

    Beyond that, it may be used as a stick against postdocs working on politically charged topics like climate change.



  • So the actual EO doesn’t call out H1B at all, so I’m guessing this is sensationalized as H1B is the most “visible” visa in recent news.

    The context for this is likely the Moroccan national who recently committed a terror attack in Israel. He had a green card and that was supposedly part of the decision to grant him entry as a tourist to Israel.

    That having been said, this will likely result in some international students getting deported whether deserved or not. Semi-intended consequences is what I’d call them.










  • Sanctions have not been effective - AQAH has been sanctioned since 2007, and only the direct military threat on Iranian planes bringing cash seems to be having the desired impact.

    The quiet part is here in the details - Iran is Hezbollah’s financier - confirming what everyone has known for decades. AQAH is unlicensed, yet they do business with AQAH because they know that someone (Iran) will guarantee AQAH’s debts. More importantly, it shows a path forward for Lebanon - to simply enforce their existing sovereignty and laws - punishing banks that do business with unlicensed banks.





  • Small strikes against any IRGC personnel stationed outside Iran - they’re fair game and on the table. We’re already seeing this with the strikes on Damascus and throughout Lebanon.

    Also - based on the saber rattling and talking heads, it sounds like there are likely to be three potential targets: the dams, which would cause massive domestic economic damage to Iran; the oil facilities, which would cause massive economic damage to the Iranian regime; finally, known nuclear sites, which are in line with Israeli rhetoric about preventing Iranian nuclear ambitions.

    I think cooler heads will prevail and the dams won’t be targeted, and without a regional coalition committed to a ground invasion with a goal of regime change, attacking the nuclear facilities won’t have the strategic impact that’s desired. Which leaves the oil refineries - there’s a natural bottleneck for Iranian oil production/export so there’s a short list of physical areas that need to be attacked for it to be effective.

    Thinking on it further, IRGC headquarters should also be on the table. I don’t think it’s likely, but if it succeeds (and it’s likely to succeed - especially with direct US support) then it’s a huge win. But even if it does succeed I don’t see it leading to real regime change in Iran, so without that strategic impact it’s far less likely.