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Cake day: July 14th, 2023

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  • AI vendors and AI-based companies are taking advantage of an often-overlooked asymmetry in how value and risk work.

    MBA brain thinks: task makes us $500, has a 1% chance of making a mistake that costs us $200. So expected value is: 500-200x0.01, or $498. So if I can use AI to do task twice as fast, it’s all upside!

    Reality is: value-adds tend to be situational, and risk tends to be systemic. If you do task x2, you might not see any actual extra profit as a result — due to dependencies, diminishing returns, and maybe supply and demand, that value might just fizzle out.

    But if you make a small mistake, and then someone else makes a small mistake while building on top of your work, and so on… that risk compounds quickly and spirals out of control.



  • The seal looks like this:

    Code completion is probably a gray area.

    Those models generally have much smaller context windows, so the energy concern isn’t quite as extreme.

    You could also reasonably make a claim that the model is legally in the clear as far as licensing, if the training data was entirely open source (non-attribution, non-share-alike, and commercial-allowed) licensed code. (A big “if”)

    All of that to say: I don’t think I would label code-completion-using anti-AI devs as hypocrites. I think the general sentiment is less “what the technology does” and more “who it does it to”. Code completion, for the most part, isn’t deskilling labor, or turning experts into chatbot-wrangling accountability sinks.

    Like, I don’t think the Luddites would’ve had a problem with an artisan using a knitting frame in their own home. They were too busy fighting against factories locking children inside for 18-hour shifts, getting maimed by the machines or dying trapped in a fire. It was never the technology itself, but the social order that was imposed through the technology.







  • only a tool

    “The essence of technology is by no means anything technological”

    Every tool contains within it a philosophy — a particular way of seeing the world.

    But especially digital technologies… they give the developer the ability to embed their values into the tools. Like, is DoorDash just a tool?



  • The new rules for commercial driver’s licenses that Duffy announced in September make getting them extremely hard for immigrants because only three specific classes of visa holders will be eligible. States will also have to verify an applicant’s immigration status in a federal database. The licenses will be valid for up to one year unless the applicant’s visa expires sooner.

    Under the new rules, only 10,000 of the 200,000 noncitizens who have commercial licenses would qualify for them, which would only be available to drivers who have an H-2a, H-2b or E-2 visa. H-2a is for temporary agricultural workers while H-2b is for temporary nonagricultural workers, and E-2 is for people who make substantial investments in a U.S. business. But the rules won’t be enforced retroactively, so those 190,000 drivers will be allowed to keep their commercial licenses at least until they come up for renewal.

    Those new requirements were not in place at the time the 17,000 California licenses were issued. But those drivers were given notices that their licenses will expire in 60 days.

    So most likely, they will not be able to renew, even if they have a valid work visa that would’ve enabled them to keep their existing CDL if the expiration date had been correct.

    Sooo… it’s just an excuse to enact part of this law sooner, against people who otherwise would’ve been grandfathered in (and did nothing wrong), and do some damage to the economy of a blue state?


  • To add to the other replies: This is what AI is for. Not to replace labor, but to enhance the ruling class’ ability to exploit labor.

    As a convenient side effect: If you use AI to spam people with bug reports, you’re basically DDoSing them… unless they then decide to use AI to help triage the avalanche. And wouldn’t you know it, Google just happens to sell AI to help you solve this problem they made for you!

    “Nice FOSS project you got there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it.”

    And also also: If FOSS in general turns into a ghost town… where are you gonna turn to get that boilerplate code you need to do a common task? That’s right, AI baby! All roads lead to boiling the Great Lakes so Nvidia can pay itself back.






  • The original source was much more sensible.

    The comparison makes sense for evaluating whether you’re over-invested in something. Like, if Nvidia suddenly poofed out of existence, would it seriously be worth 16% of everything the whole country makes in a year to get it back?

    Owning a car that’s worth 16% of your yearly income sounds reasonable, no matter what your actual income is. A Pokemon card collection that’s 16% of your income is probably too risky, no matter what your actual income is.

    Also, GDP is a decent scale to use for charting investment in a productivity tool, because if GDP ramped up at the same time as investment then it looks less like a bubble, even if they both ramp up quickly.

    But that’s not what we see. We see a sudden and volatile shift, nothing like the normal pattern before the hype.