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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • It takes at least a month to ship things from China to the US. I’ve got a post in my history going over the math.

    If the ports are empty now, that means ships stopped sailing a month ago. If they sail today, they’ll be here mid to late June. If none have sailed in-between, it’s going to be a while before any do. And I’m not sure any ships will be sailing soon because no deals have been reached.

    Lots of companies bought extra supply in the months leading up to Lie-beration Day, so they can hold for a bit. The only question is how long will they, compared to how long Chinese shipping will resume?


  • Out of curiosity, I looked it up a while back.

    It’s 11,631 km from Shenzen to Los Angeles. That’s about 6280 nautical miles.

    The average container ship speed is 16-25 knots. Let’s split the difference and call it 20.

    6280 nm / 20 kn = 314 hours

    That’s a little over 13 days just to cross the Pacific, assuming a steady course and no issues. Add in time to load the ship in China and unload it in LA, and you can see why the most-cited estimates are three to four weeks for cross-Pacific shipping.

    If no ships have arrived from China in the past few days, that means it was a month ago (hey, anyone remember “Liberation Day” on April 2?) that ships stopped sailing. And that means it will be at least another month before any more arrive, assuming they leave today.

    Trump voters have really fucked over the US.