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Cake day: September 12th, 2023

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  • I think the issue isn’t China finding other import partners, but the idea that they could quickly create a domestic industry for canola or comparable oils. Their economic model just allows them to target areas like this and, in a relatively short time, spin up new industries. They aren’t limited by the whims of the market and investors, the state can order these things to be created and subsidize them strongly until the industry can stand on its own. Just look at Chinese cars and tech products. There’s something like 200 Chinese auto brands! I don’t know how many phone and computer manufacturers there are in China, but the CCP specifically targetted both of these industries as points to address while it relied on imports and now their products outclass many foreign options. China is quickly becoming the largest and strongest economy in the world and a lot of that is due to state-directed industry projects focusing on domestic production.

    I don’t specifically understand the canola market or industry. Maybe there are some limiting factors that prevent China from producing it domestically that makes this moot, but I just think it’s a risky game to play to assume China cannot produce something domestically in a few years if it becomes economically troublesome to import it.