These arent nested. Any of these can happen independently and any one of them happening makes some others more likely to happen too.
Each of them adds to shifting the balance of power and noone knows where the breaking point is.
Of course there is also a few IFs going the other way around, or were we just know it will have an impact but not which way
If the Russian people get fed up with the economy…
If Putin dies…
If Trump dies…
If Xi dies…
If there is an escalation in South East Asia…
If there is a further escalation in West Asia…
If there is a major climate event in Russia/Eastern Europe/Western Europe/North America…
Ironically the “Free Democrats” which are like a milktoast version of Musk style Neoliberalism/light Fascism, with recent endorsements of Musk by their party leadership, have gotten a good result in the previous election primarily because of their social media campaigns. Of course having the Axel-Springer Media heavily favor them also played a role. It is the publisher that recently had Musk endorse the fascist AfD party in an article.
But if you think this “Free Democrats” only recently got in bed with fascism, don’t worry. They were also the party with the most ex-NSDAP members after WW2 and they advocated for “looking past” the Nazi history in the 50s already.