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Cake day: October 9th, 2023

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  • I’d expect this to be causing people who live in low-risk areas to be subsidizing people who live in high risk areas

    To be fair, high-risk people are subsidized in nearly every type of insurance. Often unintentionally (due to actuarial uncertainty) but sometimes it is an explicit goal.

    For example, community rating was deliberately introduced to health insurance in order to cause lower risk people to subsidize high risk people (eg those with preexisting conditions).



  • No, a handwriting sample is not easy to get. It generally requires a search warrant, which means you can name the suspect before they are arrested, which didn’t happen here.

    A driver’s license signature is not a handwriting sample, unless the manifesto consists only of Mangione signing his name over and over again all over the page. There are plenty of other letters, capitals, etc that they cannot reproduce.

    Yes, cops are sometimes dumb enough to plant evidence. But they generally do this to the defenseless, not people from wealthy families who can hire someone like Johnny Cochrane.

    Which is another major hole in this theory: if the NYPD were looking for someone to frame, why not frame someone who cannot afford to defend himself?

    Why wait days for a phone call from an Altoona McDonald’s, when there are plenty of people they could frame right then and there in NYC?

    Why finally choose someone located 300 miles from NYC, considering that a randomly chosen person in that McDonald’s was likely in central PA during the murder and thus would have an airtight alibi?

    Why forge a handwritten manifesto when they could easily avoid suspicion by using a typewriter?

    I mean, instead of spending days in Central Park, they could have spent 10 minutes searching the Fediverse for “guillotines” and “my medical debt” to find at least a dozen defenseless New Yorkers with a legit written history of advocating death to the wealthy and genuine animus against health insurance.

    But no, instead they chose to frame some random guy. And because cops love extra work, they chose a random white, wealthy guy instead of a poor POC like they usually do. For an extra challenge, they even chose a young, attractive guy instead of someone less sympathetic like Ted Kaczynski.

    Your theory requires the NYPD to spend a lot of effort making a lot of risky bets that could backfire and destroy their case, for no reason at all.












  • All voters are worthy of our time. But Trump’s victory demonstrates that the American electorate, and Palestinian-Americans in particular, have moved further to the right since 2020. To the point that the staunchest supporter of Israel can win most demographics.

    Democrats will have to grapple with this when formulating new policies. The only “tribalism” comes those who look at 2024 and imagine voters moved to the left.

    EDIT:

    As for Wayne County, I was responding to “Trump interacted a lot more with Arab voters”. There is no evidence of that.

    Wayne County visits are admittedly an imperfect metric of interaction, so if you have some better comparative metric then I’d love to see it.


  • Trump at least said “fine I’ll end the war.”

    That’s not all he said.

    “If you get me elected, and you should really be doing this … we’re going to set that movement [the pro-Palestine solidarity campaign] back 25 or 30 years”

    He said on Oct. 11 that a future Trump administration would “fully support Israel defeating, dismantling, and permanently destroying the terrorist group Hamas,” while telling the Republican Jewish Coalition later that month that Hamas fighters “will burn forever in the eternal pit of hell." That month, his campaign also said that, if elected again, he would bar Gaza residents from entering the U.S. as part of an expanded travel ban.

    Based on that, it’s clear that Trump did not win by pursuing a pro-Palestine policy. He nevertheless connected with Palestinian-American voters, and I suspect it’s for the same reason he connected with Latino voters.